The Archer's Target:
times when you are on a flight there is some turbulence. It is very
common. The takeoff is always pretty smooth and the landing can be easy or
a bit bumpy. We took off in 2010 and the market has had very little
turbulence on our flight.
We are experiencing that turbulence now. It is a repeat of the August jolt
we felt from the Chinese currency issues. We are once again facing the
same thing with some added fuel from Iran vs. Saudi Arabia and North Korea
flexing their miniscule muscles. Also the slide in oil has created havoc
on the Energy Sector's earnings. We think the worst is behind us in oil
and expect oil to rebound to more normal levels above 40 in the mid-term.
Long-term, a price of $65-$75 would not be out of bounds. It is just when
we get back to those levels.
Frankly if anyone knew we were headed into a bear market all precautions
would be taken. I don't think this time is any different though. In fact,
I think we will get some additional turbulence but the landing should be
fairly simple. The US dollar is starting to fall a bit which is good for
companies doing business overseas. A couple of things to watch are if
unemployment claims get to 300,000 or the Manufacturing has another report
of less than 50, we should take precaution. However, right now, although
more turbulence is in store, the market looks fairly priced. In fact,
there are always times the market is higher or lower than the norm, but we
must not forget that we are long-term investors and should not be swayed
by short-term gyrations.
Don't Hibernate just yet, look at the next chart and you can see over
time, there are often dips and peaks. Our goal is to smooth them out as
much as possible, but over time have a smooth ride. So try to put your Rip
VanWinkle hat on and sit back and take a snooze until we land this time as
We will put out our 2016 outlook tomorrow. If you have any questions, feel
free to call.
Troy C. Patton, CPA/ABV
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W. Edward Newton, Jr. CFP®
Newton Financial Network
13850 Ballantyne Corporate Place, Suite 500
Charlotte, NC 28277-2830
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