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November 2018 Special Update:

 

The Halloween Trick

The market has given many of us quite a scare in October before finally rebounding a bit the last two days of October and November is off to a positive start as I write this. There is much to do about rising rates, tariffs, and elections over the past few weeks and I would like to address this briefly. If you can't wait until the end, the bottom line is we are likely to move higher into 2019.

Some are speculating the Fed has raised rates too far and I happen to be in this camp to some extent. However, the last release of GDP says it is likely close to 3.5%. In the environment we currently live, it seems if the 10-year Treasury has been consistent with an average of GDP over the last year (Gross Domestic Product Growth), then it is probably fairly priced. As you can see since 1967, we have seen periods of higher GDP growth and we also saw a higher 10-year Treasury. Think late 70's and early 80's. Clearly GDP has slowed down over the years with a few spikes higher and lower.



For now, we expect rates will continue to move higher through 2019, and it appears they still have room to run without upsetting the markets as the 10-year Treasury notes are less than GDP.

Tariffs Tariffs have been the headline choice of the day for the last 6-9 months. Some of the countries we were able to get resolved, but China's tariffs still loom over the headlines. Frankly, these could cause a problem should they last indefinitely. However, if you actually look at the tariffs, they are down in 2018 vs. 2017. This means the rhetoric does not match what China is saying. All leaders of their countries try to save face with their voters (or in China's case, population). They talk tough, but actually cave under the pressure of their own fears. This will be no different. Neither the United States nor China can let tariffs create a recession or they will lose their power given by the people. SIMPLE.

Elections They are here and soon will be over. Democrats will not have veto power and not much will change. Trump will work with whomever is in power on either side. Frankly, maybe nothing will get done and sometimes that can be a positive. There is not going to be a huge swing to either side and unless one party holds all the cards, it is a lot to do about nothing.
 

Looking Ahead:
Stay focused on the long-term. Even if you may be contemplating retirement, you would not expect to pull out your savings from investments on the day you retire. Retirement is a long journey and you will need the assets to continue their growth. We are currently evaluating the income investments within our portfolios as the interest rate environment has changed with the trend towards higher rates. We will keep you updated should something in the markets warrant a change. For now, we see the markets moving higher as we enter the next six months which have historically been the best time to be in the market.


Sincerely,
Paul Sullivan, CPA, IAR
Chris Bailey, CPA, IAR
www.esullivanwm.net
 


 

 

 

Sullivan & Company, CPAs | 4709 Montgomery Lane | Bethesda, MD 20814 www.eSullivan.net | email: pSullivan@eSullivan.net | Connect With Me on Linkedin

Direct: 240-316-3531 | Main no.: 301-657-8080 Ext 102 | Fax: 301-657-9055

 

The opinions contained herein are not intended to be investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Information obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance figures contained herein do not represent actual client portfolios or results. Actual results may significantly differ from the model portfolio returns presented. Archer Investment Corporation manages the Archer Funds. You should carefully consider the investment objectives, potential risks, management fees, and charges and expenses of the Funds before investing. The investment return and principle value of an investment in the Funds will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund prospectus contains this and other information about the Fund, and should be read carefully before investing. You may obtain a current copy of the prospectus by calling 800-581-1780.